HuJiao is expected to set a new high this month

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Shanghai Jiao is expected to set a new high this month

at present, the main contract 0911 of Shanghai Jiao entered the box shock adjustment after hitting a high of 16080 yuan in early June. On June 25, after exploring the important psychological price of 14600 yuan/ton of national collection and storage, it continued to rise on June 26, rising 225 yuan/ton to close at 15535 yuan/ton. The trend of Tokyo rubber is basically the same as that of Shanghai rubber, from the lowest 99.8 yen/kg in December 2008 to the highest 183.2 yen/kg in 2009, an increase of 83.6%. In June, influenced by the appreciation of the yen against the US dollar and the weak domestic demand in Japan, the trend of Tokyo Jiao was significantly weaker than that of Shanghai Jiao, and the price difference between the two places was further expanded to 4295 yuan/ton. However, considering the 20% tariff and 17% value-added tax, Tokyo Jiao currently does not have the conditions for arbitrage

from the macro situation, the problem of excess liquidity at home and abroad still exists. Since the outbreak of the financial crisis, governments of various countries have issued rescue plans of different scales, implemented very loose monetary policies, and injected huge amounts of funds into the financial system and the market. In March, 2009, the Federal Reserve announced that it would purchase US $300billion of long-term US Treasury bonds and up to US $1.25 trillion of mortgage-backed securities issued by Fannie and Freddie in the next few months. At the same time, the central banks of Japan and European countries have also bought bonds to increase the money supply in the financial markets. In the first half of this year, it is a foregone conclusion that China's new credit exceeded 6 trillion yuan. In 2008, the new credit was only 4 trillion yuan. This shows the abundance of market liquidity

on the basis of natural rubber, seasonal factors suppress the rise of rubber price. From the supply situation in late May, the market volume of new rubber in Southeast Asia is still insufficient, and the continuous rainfall in the early stage has brought some obstacles to rubber cutting. Due to the impact of the dry weather and the comprehensive and multi-level energy-saving technical transformation, the rubber supply is tight and the holiday in April is 4 Loading speed: more than 5 ± 0.5 kg/S. in April this year, Thailand's rubber export decreased by 16.5% compared with the same period last year to 176000 tons. Although the rubber farmers in this country had resumed their rubber cutting operations before late April, excessive rainfall affected the time of rubber cutting. In June, the rubber production began to pick up. In late June, the prices in Thailand's local wholesale market began to fall. From the perspective of the cycle of the year, the monthly new rubber listing volume will increase significantly, while the downstream tire production has entered a relatively low season. Therefore, the monthly rubber prices in most years are easy to fall but difficult to rise, and will remain until the second half of the year. This will put a lot of pressure on the price of rubber, suppress the space for the rise of the price of rubber, and seasonal factors may show up in the later stage

in July, on the one hand, it is the inflation expectation caused by the flooding liquidity in the market, on the other hand, it is the suppression of the rubber price by the large number of new rubber listed in the peak season of rubber cutting. The traditional method of these two forces will control the medium and short-term trend of the rubber price by using rapid prototyping technology. The confirmation of the economic situation will point out the direction for the medium and long-term rubber price. Considering the strong demand in China, the decline of the US dollar index, the firmness of the crude oil price and the macroeconomic data of the second quarter to be released in mid July, the rubber price is expected to remain strong in the short term. In July, Shanghai rubber is expected to refresh the previous high point driven by funds

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